Bertrand Gruss
Last Updated: May 13, 2025
Bertrand Gruss is a deputy division chief in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he works on the World Economic Outlook. Prior to that, he worked in the African, European, Fiscal Affairs, and Western Hemisphere Departments of the IMF, and at the Central Bank of Uruguay. His research interests include monetary policy, commodity prices, macro financial linkages, and capital flows. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the European University Institute.
Email: BGRUSS@imf.org
Personal WebPage: https://sites.google.com/view/bertrand-gruss/home
Fluent In: French, Spanish.
Education:
Ph.D. in Economics, European University Institute, 2010
M.A. in Economics, European University Institute, 2007
B.A. in Economics, Universidad de la República (Uruguay), 2004
Previous Experience:
International Monetary Fund, 2010-present.
Central Bank of Uruguay, Research Department, 2004-2006.
Current Position:
Deputy Division Chief, IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division.
IMF Career:
Deputy Division Chief, Research Department, 2023-present.
Senior Economist, African Department, 2021–2023.
Senior Economist, European Department, 2019–2021.
Economist, Research Department, 2016–2019.
Economist, Western Hemisphere Department, 2013–2016.
Economist, European Department, 2012–2013.
Economist, Fiscal Affairs Department, 2010–2012.
Field of Expertise:
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Monetary Policy
International Macroeconomics
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectation Dispersion , Working Paper No. 2020/252 , November 13, 2020
Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe , Working Paper No. 20/218 , October 21, 2020
Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 19/128 , June 17, 2019
Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock , Working Paper No. 19/75 , March 28, 2019
Commodity Terms of Trade : A New Database , Working Paper No. 19/21 , January 24, 2019
Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence , Working Paper No. 18/280 , December 11, 2018
Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 18/241 , November 08, 2018
Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions , Working Paper No. 18/52 , March 12, 2018
Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency , Working Paper No. 18/24 , January 25, 2018
Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through , Working Paper No. 16/240 , December 13, 2016
Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe , Working Paper No. 15/15 , January 23, 2015
After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean , Working Paper No. 14/154 , August 14, 2014
Macroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances , Working Paper No. 12/38 , January 01, 2012
The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards:An Assessment Using a DSGE Model , Working Paper No. 09/35 , March 01, 2009
iMFdirect Blog Posts
Support for Economic Reforms Hinges on Communication, Engagement, and Trust, October 2024.
Central Bank Credibility Pays Off in Times of Stress, October 2018.
The Decline in Manufacturing Jobs: Not Necessarily a Cause for Concern, April 2018
Learning to Adjust: The Effects of Currency Depreciations on Inflation in Latin America, May 2016
To Hike or Not to Hike? Monetary Policy in Latin America During Fed Liftoff, October 2015.
Mind the Dragon: Latin America’s Exposure to China, November 2014.
A Downturn Without Layoffs? Reconciling Growth And Labor Markets In Latin America, October 2014.
América Latina: Creciendo sin la locomotora de los commodities, June 2014.
Other Published Materials
Monetary policy in Latin America: Implications from Global Financial Integration, joint with Y. Carrière-Swallow), in Challenges for Central Banking: Perspectives from Latin America, edited by Y. Carrie`re-Swallow, H. Faruqee, L.I. Ja´come, and K. Srinivasan, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2016
Publications in Journals (Refereed)
Other Published Materials
Bertrand Gruss is a deputy division chief in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he works on the World Economic Outlook. Prior to that, he worked in the African, European, Fiscal Affairs, and Western Hemisphere Departments of the IMF, and at the Central Bank of Uruguay. His research interests include monetary policy, commodity prices, macro financial linkages, and capital flows. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the European University Institute.
Email: BGRUSS@imf.org
Personal WebPage: https://sites.google.com/view/bertrand-gruss/home
Fluent In: French, Spanish.
Education:
Ph.D. in Economics, European University Institute, 2010
M.A. in Economics, European University Institute, 2007
B.A. in Economics, Universidad de la República (Uruguay), 2004
Previous Experience:
International Monetary Fund, 2010-present.
Central Bank of Uruguay, Research Department, 2004-2006.
Current Position:
Deputy Division Chief, IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division.
IMF Career:
Deputy Division Chief, Research Department, 2023-present.
Senior Economist, African Department, 2021–2023.
Senior Economist, European Department, 2019–2021.
Economist, Research Department, 2016–2019.
Economist, Western Hemisphere Department, 2013–2016.
Economist, European Department, 2012–2013.
Economist, Fiscal Affairs Department, 2010–2012.
Field of Expertise:
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Monetary Policy
International Macroeconomics
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectation Dispersion , Working Paper No. 2020/252 , November 13, 2020
Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe , Working Paper No. 20/218 , October 21, 2020
Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 19/128 , June 17, 2019
Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock , Working Paper No. 19/75 , March 28, 2019
Commodity Terms of Trade : A New Database , Working Paper No. 19/21 , January 24, 2019
Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence , Working Paper No. 18/280 , December 11, 2018
Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 18/241 , November 08, 2018
Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions , Working Paper No. 18/52 , March 12, 2018
Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency , Working Paper No. 18/24 , January 25, 2018
Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through , Working Paper No. 16/240 , December 13, 2016
Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe , Working Paper No. 15/15 , January 23, 2015
After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean , Working Paper No. 14/154 , August 14, 2014
Macroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances , Working Paper No. 12/38 , January 01, 2012
The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards:An Assessment Using a DSGE Model , Working Paper No. 09/35 , March 01, 2009
iMFdirect Blog Posts
Support for Economic Reforms Hinges on Communication, Engagement, and Trust, October 2024.
Central Bank Credibility Pays Off in Times of Stress, October 2018.
The Decline in Manufacturing Jobs: Not Necessarily a Cause for Concern, April 2018
Learning to Adjust: The Effects of Currency Depreciations on Inflation in Latin America, May 2016
To Hike or Not to Hike? Monetary Policy in Latin America During Fed Liftoff, October 2015.
Mind the Dragon: Latin America’s Exposure to China, November 2014.
A Downturn Without Layoffs? Reconciling Growth And Labor Markets In Latin America, October 2014.
América Latina: Creciendo sin la locomotora de los commodities, June 2014.
Other Published Materials
Monetary policy in Latin America: Implications from Global Financial Integration, joint with Y. Carrière-Swallow), in Challenges for Central Banking: Perspectives from Latin America, edited by Y. Carrie`re-Swallow, H. Faruqee, L.I. Ja´come, and K. Srinivasan, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2016